Hisham NuhuFlood and disaster risk

Work · Stafford

Stafford Common: urban flood hydrology for the Sandyford Brook

Hydrological analysis of extreme river flows under climate change for a heavily urbanised, multi-watercourse catchment in Stafford.

RoleHydrologist
Period2020–23
Valueest. US$40k (modelling), within a project of more than US$500k
Hydrology delivered; wider project continued

ContextWhy it mattered

The Sandyford Brook rises on Stafford Common and flows through north Stafford towards the River Sow. Environment Agency planning evidence put more than 150 homes in the Sandyford Brook corridor at flood risk, and planned a joint model of the Marston Brook, the Sandyford Brook and the urban drainage network. Sandon Road flooded repeatedly in 2020, 2021 and January 2025. The area is flat, and ground subsidence reduces drainage. A 2020 option to lower a restrictive culvert was estimated at about £1.8m.

Partners: Staffordshire County Council (lead local flood authority); Stafford Borough Council; Severn Trent Water

My roleWhat I did

Flood Risk Officer: hydrologist

  • Delivered hydrological analysis of extreme river flows, including climate change, for a heavily urbanised catchment.
  • Analysed several watercourses together and represented urbanisation in the flow estimates.
  • Wrote the technical report to FCERM and Water Framework Directive standards, and presented the findings.
  • Met stakeholders and partners regularly, so the work stayed fit for purpose and on time.

Project cycleHow the project moved, stage by stage

Who led each stage, and what it produced. Filled steps were mine; outlined steps were led by others.

My role (4 of 6 stages) Context: led by the council, partners or the Environment Agency, not my actions

  1. 1NeedEA-led

    Repeated flooding at Sandon Road, and more than 150 homes in the Sandyford Brook corridor indicated at risk.

    Result An urban flood problem needing better evidence.

    ADB: Project identification · World Bank: Identification

  2. 2Evidence: hydrologyMy role

    Delivered hydrological analysis of extreme river flows, including climate change.

    Result Extreme-flow estimates with climate uplift.

    ADB: Project preparatory or transaction technical assistance: technical studies · World Bank: Preparation: technical studies

  3. 3Evidence: urban catchmentsMy role

    Analysed several watercourses and represented urbanisation in the flow estimates.

    Result Flows that reflect an urbanised, multi-watercourse catchment.

    ADB: Due diligence (technical) · World Bank: Feasibility study

  4. 4ReportingMy role

    Wrote the technical report to FCERM and Water Framework Directive standards.

    Result A technical report to standard.

    ADB: Technical assistance report · World Bank: Feasibility report / appraisal input

  5. 5Engagement and disseminationMy role

    Presented the findings and met partners regularly.

    Result Partners briefed on the evidence.

    ADB: Stakeholder consultation · World Bank: ESS10 stakeholder engagement

  6. 6Options and delivery (wider project)EA-led

    The Environment Agency later delivered property flood resilience to 31 homes and is in talks on upstream storage.

    Result 31 homes with property flood resilience (2026).

    ADB: Implementation · World Bank: Implementation

PeopleWho it affects, and how results were shared

Who it affects

  • Residents and businesses on and near Sandon Road, flooded repeatedly (2020, 2021, January 2025)
  • More than 150 homes in the Sandyford Brook corridor indicated at risk

How people were involved

  • Regular partner meetings, and presentation of findings. my record
  • A residents’ flood action group took part in a July 2020 partner meeting. public

What changes for them

  • Property flood resilience (flood doors, air bricks, pumps, repointing) helps keep water out of 31 homes. EA, 2026
  • Upstream storage, if agreed with a developer, would reduce flows reaching the town. EA, under discussion

Public evidenceOne year after the 2013/14 floods, probable depression, anxiety and PTSD affected 20.1%, 28.3% and 36.2% of people whose homes flooded, against 5.8%, 6.5% and 7.9% of unaffected people (English National Study of Flooding and Health). Source: Waite et al. (2017) English National Study of Flooding and Health, BMC Public Health 17:129.

MethodsMethods and tools

  • Flood Estimation Handbook methods (Environment Agency standard)
  • Urban catchment adjustment
  • Multi-watercourse flow estimation
  • Peak river flow climate change allowances
  • Technical reporting and presentation

OutcomeWhat happened

My hydrology fed the project’s evidence base. In 2026 the Environment Agency reported property flood resilience for 31 homes on Sandon Road, and talks with a developer on upstream flood storage.

A long-running urban flood problemmy hydrology2012201620202024c.2013Joint model planned:Marston Brook, SandyfordBrook, urban drainage2020Sandon Roadfloods2021FloodsagainJan 2025Floodsagain2026: property flood resiliencefor 31 homes on Sandon RoadSeveral urban watercourses,design flows with climate upliftTimeline from public sources; no money figures.
A long-running urban flood problem. Schematic based on public sources (see Sources); not to scale.

In numbersHow urban design flows are built

  1. Several urban watercourses (incl. Sandyford Brook)
  2. Catchment descriptors, incl. urban extent
  3. Flood estimation (Environment Agency standard methods)
  4. Urbanisation adjustment
  5. Climate change allowance on peak flow
  6. Design flows for options
  7. Technical report and presentation
Method diagram, from my project record. The steps from catchment data to the design flows used to compare options.

Method steps from my project record. Method names follow Environment Agency standard practice.

SkillsSkills gained

  • HydrologyUrban, multi-watercourse flow estimation, where urbanisation changes how fast and how much water arrives.
  • Climate adaptationExtreme flows uplifted for climate change to inform options.
  • Technical reportingReports written to FCERM and Water Framework Directive standards, and presented to partners.
  • Stakeholder engagementRegular partner meetings in a catchment shared by the county council, borough council and water company.
  • Hydrology
  • Flood risk assessment
  • Climate adaptation
  • Stakeholder and community engagement

TransferHow this applies internationally

ADB RRBI. Urban basin hydrology of the kind RRBI calls “robust hydrological and risk-based assessments”. Many developing-country basins are urbanising fast, and design flows must reflect that.

Impact-based forecasting. Return-period analysis of extreme flows. The same analysis of how often extreme flows occur sets the return periods behind the risk categories and triggers used in impact-based forecasting.

World Bank (appraisal). An appraisal-stage technical study for an urban flood investment. Hydrology like this underpins the option choice and economic analysis in a Project Appraisal Document.

UNDRR (risk assessment and modelling). Modelling and risk analytics. Multi-hazard risk assessment and modelling need sound flood flows, and urban catchments are where they are hardest to estimate.

SourcesSources

  1. GOV.UK: Flood resilience improved for homes in Stafford (5 Mar 2026)
  2. Environment Agency evidence to the Stafford Local Plan examination (c.2013)
  3. Express & Star: Group set up to tackle long-running flooding problem (Aug 2020)
  4. Express & Star: Staffordshire residents “sick and tired” of flooded homes (Jan 2025)
  5. GOV.UK: Flood risk assessments, climate change allowances
  6. Waite et al. (2017) English National Study of Flooding and Health, BMC Public Health 17:129

Value est. US$40k (modelling), within a project of more than US$500k: value of the modelling if contracted externally. The estimate is mine.