I help governments, development banks, UN agencies and consulting firms work out where flood risk is highest, what would reduce it and how to pay for it. My evidence runs from all 260 districts of Ghana to a single village on the River Blithe in England.
Real model output: a 1-in-100-year flood, plus 29% for climate change, spreading across the Hamstall Ridware floodplain in the first-generation 2022 model; 149 ha at its peak. Replayed, not to time scale. How to read this: drag the slider to move through the flood.
Animated map: in the 2022 model of a 1% AEP flood with a 29% climate allowance, water spreads over 79 hours to cover 149 hectares of the River Blithe and Trent floodplain at Hamstall Ridware, Staffordshire.
I offer six kinds of work, each backed by a project you can read about here: national flood risk assessment, river modelling, coastal screening, risk information for early warning, option appraisal and funding, and flood risk work in Ghana and West Africa.
Assessment
Where floods do most harm, who lives in the way, and which priorities still hold when the assumptions change.
Evidence: flood-prone districts in Ghana, the full method.
MoreModelling
Design flows you can defend, and river models checked against a flood that really happened.
Evidence: Hamstall Ridware. The hydrology was entirely my work; I built the 1D–2D model jointly with an Environment Agency modelling colleague.
MoreCoast
How high the sea can reach once tide, storm surge and waves add up, and which low ground connects to it.
Evidence: Ghana’s coast, a static screening with provisional forcing, not a 2D model.
MoreEarly warning
From “how much rain” to “who will be affected”: the numbers a warning service sets its thresholds with.
Evidence: ten incident weeks as a Flood Warning Duty Officer, south-east London.
MoreAppraisal and funding
Which option is worth paying for, and how to put the money together from more than one source.
Evidence: my own appraisal at Hamstall (an earth bund, benefit–cost ratio about 4.6 on one consistent basis) and three council-led schemes in London funded in partnership, together est. over US$5.2m.
MoreGhana and West Africa
Independent flood risk work that starts from a national picture already built: all 260 districts, the river and the coast.
Evidence: Ghana flood risk, presented for discussion with the World Bank.
MoreIt follows the water to the decision. First where floods go and how often, then who and what is in the way, then how much harm each depth does. Together those give the risk, with its uncertainty. The last step is the one that matters: what to do first, and how to pay for it.
Hazard: where the water goes
How deep, how far and how often. Ghana: flood maps for five flood sizes, 1 in 10 to 1 in 500 years. Hamstall: a 1D–2D model of the River Blithe.
Exposure: who is in the way
Homes, people and assets inside each flood. 1.18 million people inside Ghana’s modelled 1-in-100-year flood.
Vulnerability: how much harm
The damage a given depth does to a home, and to the people in it. Three damage curves for Ghanaian homes; harm to mental health counted at Hamstall.
Risk: harm and how likely it is
Averaged over the years, with the uncertainty shown. About GHS 5.19 billion a year in Ghana, between 2.93 and 7.33 billion depending on the flood edge.
Decision: what to do first
A short list, the options and the funding. 13 Act districts in Ghana; an earth bund the farmers built at Hamstall.
How to read this: the steps light up in turn; tap or tab to any step to read it.
Yes. I spent six years at the Environment Agency (2019–2025): flood modelling and hydrology in the West Midlands, then planning advice and partnership funding in London. I can now help consultancies, councils, landowners and developers in England, remotely or on site.
Send the site address and planning reference, the Environment Agency’s response or your project brief. I will reply with a scope, a fixed fee and a timescale.
Environment Agency and council references are available on request. I don’t take on work on cases I handled while at the Environment Agency.
How to read this: each bar is one flood in the 2024 Hamstall Ridware model; the gauge on the right (wide screens) or the readout (phones) shows the deepest water at any building. Tap a bar or a button to step through.
Buildings flooded in the 1-in-100-year flood, with the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s climate allowances, and in the 1-in-1,000-year flood.
| Flood | Buildings flooded | Deepest at a building, m | 0.1 m or deeper | 0.3 m or deeper |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% AEP flood (1 in 100) | 14 | 0.13 | 1 | 0 |
| 1% AEP + 15% (2020s allowance) | 16 | 0.24 | 8 | 0 |
| 1% AEP + 17% (2050s allowance) | 19 | 0.31 | 9 | 1 |
| 1% AEP + 29% (2080s allowance) | 21 | 0.34 | 9 | 1 |
| 0.1% AEP flood (1 in 1,000) | 29 | 0.46 | 17 | 5 |
As an individual consultant, or as a specialist or key expert in a firm’s team. Home-based or in-country, short-term or on a framework call-off. I can provide a CV in World Bank, ADB or UN P11 format.
Yes. Send me the terms of reference and the expert positions. I will tell you which ones my record fits and send a CV in the format the client asks for.
Yes, for the parts of an assignment that need it, such as field visits, workshops and training. The analysis itself I usually do remotely from the UK.
For river modelling, Flood Modeller and TUFLOW, both 1D and 2D; HEC-RAS 2D or SFINCS where a project calls for them. For national screening and coastal work, Python, GDAL and QGIS, built on open data. I was also an operational user of the Environment Agency’s flood forecasting system as a duty officer.
No. It is a static screening of the low ground connected to the sea, with provisional forcing. Its job is to find the places that deserve a 2D hydrodynamic model, which is the next stage. My 2D modelling experience is on rivers, at Hamstall Ridware.
Yes. I advised on planning applications at the Environment Agency in London from 2023 to 2025, and I can review an assessment before you submit it or after an objection. Flood risk assessment reviews.
I presented the results for discussion with the World Bank and am now sharing them with its Accra-based team. The work is independent consultancy, and the river part was also my Oxford MSc dissertation. It is not an official priority list.
Work with me
Send them over. I will reply with how my experience maps to each task, when I am available and a CV in the format your procurement needs.